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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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