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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.