‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Constricts India's LPG Availability.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are turning to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their gas stocks have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the government states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and spokespersons say cylinders are being reallocated to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now largely blocked by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been triggered by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims exploitative practices.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.